Miguel Barbosa Huerta, Presidente. Silvano Aureoles Conejo, Presidente. Sergio Augusto Chan Lugo, Secretario. Francisca Elena Corrales Corrales, Secretaria. Roberto Gil Zuarth, Presidente. Ana Guadalupe Perea Santos, Secretaria. Ernesto Cordero Arroyo, Presidente. Juan G. Itzel S. Luego expone que varios avances normativos han posibilitado este fortalecimiento. El mayor ejemplo de eso son las paltas en Petorca".
Ya hemos visto vinos de gran calidad que se producen en la costa. Sectores que se han dado al mar, el valle de lo abarca, valle de leyda, San Antonio", dice Silva. Y sobre la misma, resalta: "California es el Chile del futuro". Lejos de ser un vaticinio arriesgado, la realidad y las cifras ya lo marcan como un hecho.
Con eso, "cambian los patrones de viento, los patrones de nubosidad y cambian las precipitaciones. Otro punto complejo para la Conferencia. En total se perdieron 7. Los fascistas como Bolsonaro desconocen la solidaridad humana y cultivan el terror y el odio; son los monstruos que no saben de amor. Boletin GAL Los migrantes tienen los mismos derechos humanos que cualquier otra persona". Migrar es un derecho humano. Quintanilla, A. Arratia, A. Figueroa, El Mostrador. Mundo cultural llama a respetar el derecho a migrar.
El pacto migratorio no es vinculante, como se ha repetido hasta la saciedad. Pero las declaraciones de intenciones pueden convertirse en leyes, como lo demuestra la Carta de Derechos Humanos, dice Cigdem Akyol. Al final algunos de los asistentes se tomaron las manos, celebraron y rieron, incluso hubo aplausos. Pero en realidad las cosas no son tan sencillas. Las denuncias por espacios seguros libres de violencia machista, impregnan la protesta de muchas mujeres. Cuatro aspectos clave del estado medioambiental actual de Chile.
Es el cuarto informe de este tipo que se realiza. De ellos, seleccionamos cuatro, puntualmente aquellos que han cobrado mayor relevancia en la agenda del La meta es que el organismo pueda estar operativo en Desde su rol como investigador y educador se encarga de difundir los riesgos del calentamiento global y promover soluciones de corto y largo plazo.
Necesitamos reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Casadevante, El Diario. De no hacerlo, la incertidumbre es total. Toda persona tiene derecho a circular libremente y a elegir su residencia en el territorio de un Estado. Migrantes, a fin de cuentas, podemos ser todos. El Rector de la U. HH es uno de esos. Este es un instrumento para situaciones que se encuentran entre las normas legales vinculantes y aquellas que no lo son. Aunque si bien no es legalmente punible, no cumplir no es un asunto irrelevante. Tampoco Alemania. Si el Tribunal de Estrasburgo determina que una familia afgana no puede ser deportada de Alemania a Italia por determinadas circunstancias, entonces no puede ser deportada.
Eso es legalmente vinculante. La labor de ESI es complicada. Sobre todo, Alemania, ha recibido muchos entre y Sin embargo, salvar el continente tuvo un precio: el aumento de los partidos populistas de derecha en Europa, especialmente en Europa del Este. Creo que es posible", asegura el experto. El diputado frente amplista, Gonzalo Winter, lo reafirma. El senador Guido Girardi dice que el Ejecutivo hubiera firmado sin poner ninguna traba si los migrantes fueran europeos. La vulnerabilidad de los migrantes internacionales Los derechos humanos representan la principal fuente del derecho internacional y de legitimidad de las Naciones Unidas Naciones Unidas, Aun cuando la CTMF no crea nuevos derechos, lo que esta hace es explicitar los derechos ya reconocidos y los extiende a todas las personas migrantes.
Por otra parte, se constatan las dificultades que han evidenciado los Estados para adaptar las legislaciones nacionales a los preceptos contenidos en estas herramientas del derecho internacional. Abel, Lidia y Caggiano, Sergio University of Minnesota Press. Bustamante, Jorge Informe del Relator Especial sobre los derechos humanos de los migrantes, Sr. Canales, Alejandro I. Comunidad Andina CAN Naciones Unidas, Ginebra. Coomaraswamy, R. Informe de la Relatora Especial sobre la violencia contra la mujer, sus causas y consecuencias, Sra.
Coordinadora de Relaciones Internacionales de Chiapas Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos Courtis, Corina Di Gropelli, E. Cominetti Migration Policy Institute. Kendall, Tamil Mercosur, Brasilia 6 de diciembre Meyers W. Morales, Abelardo Naciones Unidas Indeed, sometimes we lack someone to point out for us the light at the end of the tunnel, while allowing us to walk the path by ourselves. After some time talking with the hermano about his work, my pen stopped writing, and I accepted the fact that it was time to simply enjoy the moment, in that vibrant space in the middle of the Maya forest.
You can each him on his cell phone: 57 53 66, or visit his website: www. Mercado Slow Food 9 am - 1 pm, Av. Slow Food Market 9 am - 1 pm, Av. Calle 60 x 25, Col. Estrenamos Oh Croque! Calle 60 No. Calle 53 A x 62 y 64, Centro. Pregunta por nuestros tours al Entregas a domicilio o en Plaza La Ceiba, local Disfruta de una visita guiada en espa-. Inicio de tours: 9 am, 10 am, 11 am, 12 pm, 2 pm, 3 pm y 4 pm. TV, piscina tropical.
Calle 12 47, a un km norte del pueblo. WhatsApp 00 55 94 www. Calle 52 No. Calle 13 x 24 y 26, Col. Comodidad, privacidad, linda vista al mar, fabulosos atardeceres. Tres suites con cocina, bicicletas, kayaks. La Posheria es la casa de esta bebida y ha sido el lugar para difundirla y darla a conocer a nivel mundial. Paseo de Montejo x 41 y FB: Posheria. Unidad Deportiva Rogers. No matter the reason! At Mexstage we help you to have an efficient, successful, and enjoyable relocation. Immigration and legal services, home search, school search, household goods import, pet relocation, and more.
Contact us today: info mexstage. New hours from Thursday to Saturday: 12 pm - 12 am, with live music 9 pm - 11 pm: Cuban and Yucatecan trova, salsa, and special tributes. Sunday to Wednesday: 12 pm - 6 pm. MERCADO 60 On October 31, come to one of the most popular events at Mercado the night of the souls, where we celebrate the tradition of paying homage to our dearly departed during an evening with candlelight, music, people, and magic. And the party continues with costumes and other great events on November 1 and Now open, Oh Croque!
France has arrived with its wonderful gastronomy, Oh la la! Calle 60 x 53 y 51, Centro. Now open! Try them and enjoy the benefits of local, natural products, of beautiful quality and design. Your body is the only place you live, so take care of it! Book yours! You choose! We touch your body and you feel it in your soul!
We offer community tours of hammock weavers, embroiderers, and bakers, visits to farms, mangrove tours, cenote swimming, bee tourism, sport fishing, and more. Ask about our tours at We rent car seats, cribs, carriages, etc. Home delivery or at Plaza La Ceiba, local Visit our website: www. Enjoy a guided tour in English or Spanish through this extraordinary mansion. Tours at 9 am, 10 am, 11 am, 12 pm, 2 pm, 3 pm, and 4 pm.
TV, pool. Calle 12 47, 1 km north of the village.
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WhatsApp 00 55 Calle 52 between 49 and 51, Centro. Free demo class. Comfort, privacy, great ocean views, fabulous sunsets. Ask about our complimentary continental breakfast! It is used in a ceremonial way, but also as a symbol of fraternity in the community. We have 10 varieties: traditional white Pox, ceremonial white Pox, and eight flavors: coffee, coconut, cacao, vanilla, banana, apple, almond, and mango. Come for a free tasting! Friday Oct. Saturday Oct. Sunday Oct. La Bierhaus is serving up unique dishes like the famous Crispy Pork Shank Schweinehaxe or enjoy a cold German original for limited time Oktoberfestbier from Munich.
Centro: La experiencia comienza desde que cruzas la puerta y empieza la cuenta regresiva. Te quedan 59 minutos…. Calle 60 por 39 y 37, Centro www. Imagine being in a closed themed room, where you find, one by one, all the clues to solve the mystery which allows you to get out in less than 60 minutes. An exciting challenge! The experience gets underway as soon as you walk through the door, and the countdown begins. Inside, the decor, the music, the clues, everything will guide you through an hour full of adrenaline and fun. For one hour, Caro, Aldo and I were feeling as if we were.
And yes, it is possible to solve the mystery before the 60 minutes are up! Do you want to play? Get your team together, at least two to three people, choose the room, reserve online or via Facebook to make sure they have rooms available, get there 10 minutes early, and get ready to solve the mystery and have fun. Suitable for friends, as an integration tool for co-workers, and for families age 12 and up. Or if you want to take full advantage of your visit, and you have free time after a day out or a business working day, Cryptorama is your best option.
You have 59 minutes left… Calle 60 x 39, Centro www. Aplican restricciones de acuerdo a cada restaurante. Pregunta los detalles: Tel. Restrictions apply per each restaurant. Calle 60 x 53 y 51, Centro Pay for 4 months and get 6. Ask for details. De lunes a jueves de 5 pm - 8 pm. Calle 55 x 60 y 62, Centro. Reservas: Monday - Thursday 5 pm - 8 pm. Reserve: Calle 55 x 64 y 66, Centro.
Minutos gratis de spa al reservar tu masaje o facial de precio regular hasta 15 nov. Calle 62 x 57 y 59, Centro. Every day, to Dec. Reserva en linea en www. Calle 60 x 39, Centro. Reserve online at www. Calle 52 x 49 y 51, Centro. Contact us today for a free quote: www.
Glorieta El Pocito. La cultura maya es la que caracteriza a nuestro estado. It is known worldwide for its various contributions to the world and has endured up to this day, blended with the Spanish influence it has received. However, when Salvador Alvara-. They rebelled. The most important rebellion was the Caste War, which started in in Valladolid and lasted more than 50 years.
With the passing of time, the union between these two cultures, combined with the beauty of our natural setting, have created a great variety of options for you. There are marvelous colonial cities, magical towns, cenotes with amazing blue waters, many beaches and coastal areas full of flamingos, and Mestizo musical sounds, including trova, bambuco, bolero, and clave; as well as delicious gastronomy, a blend of millennial Maya recipes with a criolla influence.
Sus aguas cristalinas son ideales para nadar. Their crystal clear waters are ideal for swimming. Adventure to the fullest on your next visit to Valladolid at Parque Venados. Book your tour for this weekend! Take advantage of the weather and spend a day in Telchac Puerto. Visit La Quinta Montes Molina on November 1st and 2nd and learn about the ghosts that inhabit this extraordinary manor.
Sus visitantes se enamoran del clima tropical, su arquitectura y calidad de vida idea-. The city has influences from the French, including the architecture of many of the beautiful, old colonial houses with their captivating designs and structure, many of which have been restored or maintained and cared for up until today. Today the city represents a striking dual personality, with something for every taste. In the census, the population stood at , Its visitors fall in love with its ideal tropical climate, architecture, and quality of life, and often end up moving here.
As a result, we have many national and international influences in every walk of life. This beautiful capital city is known for its traditions, culture, and human quality, bringing its past and present together in an incredible way. You can enjoy wandering around the city, museums, regional entertainment, art exhibits, handcrafts, music, and the characteristic flavors of its regional, national, and international cuisine.
Sift through the archives on our website to mix and match your perfect trip! Detente en el Centro Cultural Olimpo y disfruta de alguno de los eventos que tiene. Stop by the Centro Cultural Olimpo, and go to one or more of its events. Freshen up after the walk with a visit to El Cardenal Cantina. De regreso a Tixkokob, disfruta el almuerzo con las exquisitas recetas del restaurante Pueblo Pibil. On your way back to Tixkokob, enjoy a delicious lunch at Pueblo Pibil.
Make your way to the Telchac Puerto beaches. In Telchac you will taste the freshest bounty of the sea at any of the restaurants close to the pier like La Picuda. Get there early to secure your place! Experimenta desayunar como local en el mercado de Santiago. Breakfast like a local at Santiago market. At night, enjoy a cold German beer and live music at La Bierhaus Centro.
Disfruta de las playas en Progreso. No dejes de probar el pulpo al ajillo en el restaurante Shark, al mismo tiempo que disfrutas de la vista y la brisa marina, mientras ves al sol desaparecer en el horizonte. Enjoy the Progreso beaches. El Patronato del Paseo de Montejo tiene la meta de revitalizar el patrimonio de esta hermosa avenida, desde su inicio en la Calle 49 hasta el Monumento a la Patria. La mejor manera de conocer el Paseo de Montejo es caminando. A stroll down this beautiful avenue is a delicious exercise in nostalgia.
With the eventual demise of this industry, many of the mansions were abandoned and left in disrepair. The heritage group Patronato del Paseo de Montejo has the goal of revitalizing the heritage of this lovely boulevard, from its beginning at Calle 49 up to Monumento a la Patria. The best way to see the beautiful buildings on the Paseo is to walk. The Turibus has a stop at the Museum of Anthropology at the corner of Calle You will feel as if you have stepped back in time as you ponder the stories behind the glorious mansions.
Also on Sundays, the International Art Corridor, from 9 am to 2 pm, where more than 50 artists display and sell their art on the sidewalk between Av. Hay un mercado al aire libre todos los domingos de 10 am a 3 pm, un evento muy popular. Horses and carts were kept where the arches of the park are now. There is an open-air market every Sunday from 10 am - 3 pm. Also on Sundays, Calle 60 is closed to traffic for the Bici Ruta from 8 am - pm.
In the Gene family, owners of the porticos, began a renovation of the abandoned space adjacent to the arches. In the plaza and on the adjacent streets, there is a wide variety of restaurants including Italian, Peruvian, Mexican, Mediterranean, and burgers, as well as popular bars that offer live music throughout the week. On the map on this page you can find the businesses located here. Casi todas tienen cine.
But as new investment and new ideas have taken root in the city, with a need for shops and restaurants in the suburbs, the north part of the city has exploded with exciting, modern new businesses. La Isla has a lake, green areas and potted plants, department stores, jewelry and specialty stores, as well as a wide variety of restaurants and family entertainment zones including cinemas, games, auditorium, and you can even ride in a balloon!
Pero a medida que las nuevas inversiones y nuevas ideas se han arraigado en la ciudad, con una necesidad de tiendas y restaurantes en los alrededores, la parte norte de la ciudad se ha disparado con emocionantes y modernas empresas nuevas. All have unique arrays of great places to shop and eat, ranging from locally owned one-of-akind businesses to national and international franchises. Most have cinemas. Baekeland Solamente por cita: By appoinment only: Tel. Addresses are written: Calle 39 x 54 y 56, Col. Centro, meaning: building on 39 street between 54 and 56 streets, in the Centro sector of the city.
Each Colonia has its own numbering. Also tip the people who guide you around the archaeological sites and caves. Credit cards are accepted in most stations; ask before you fill your tank. There are plenty of activities just for kids and for the whole family. Do not park where the curb is painted yellow. They are looking for drugs, arms and contraband.
No hay gasolineras de autoservicio, por lo que es usual dar propina. Aceptan tarjetas. Are you a victim of a crime? Their uniform is a white shirt with black pants. Las direcciones se escriben: Calle 39 x 54 y 56, Col. Their phone number is Mayan Ecotours Tel. Mayan Heritage Tel. They were efficient farming and manufacturing centers that produced meat and other products for export.
The haciendas enforced a social system of castes, based on race, with the Maya as slaves. Each hacienda had a school, infirmary, store, church, cemetery, hydraulics area, jail, and stables. Other haciendas are museums, providing a glimpse into former colonial times. Others are lived in by locals whose ancestors reclaimed them during the Mexican Revolution. And still others remain unrestored and open to the ravages of time. Se sirve cortado en rebanadas y se adereza con una salsa a base de tomate, cebolla y pimienta, finalizando con el toque especial pepitas de calabaza tostadas molidas.
En ocasiones se rellenan con carne asada. Este platillo se come los lunes en muchos lugares yucatecos. Se le pone recado yuca-.
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What was not pre-ordained, however, was that the changes stemming from that review would be at least as deep and far-reaching as those of the mids. Most remarkably, it included four parliamentarians from both the majority party and the opposition —a break in traditional French practice, according to which the legislative branch takes a back seat in defence decision-making—. When the Commission began its work, there were, broadly speaking, two possible conceptions of what a White Paper could be.
One was a short, political document affirming the main principles upon which national security organisation, structures and procedures should be devised. The other was a much longer and in-depth document suggesting specific and detailed changes. This second school of thought won the day.
While the Commission was independent, it had to ensure that its proposals would be adopted and implemented by the French political authorities. This ensured that at the end of the day he was easily able to make the White Paper his own. It started its work by auditing the system and listening to testimonies and personal experiences. Among the military, the voices that were heard by the Commission ranged from privates in the field to five-star generals.
This first part of the process was a novelty for France, where key political decisions, in particular in this field, are often taken under a veil of secrecy. No less than 52 public hearings were conducted, to which should be added more informal meetings in smaller formats. A website for public discussion of some of the main issues received more than , visits. The next phase was conducted in working groups, which included staff from relevant departments, including various ministries and intelligence services.
One was to merge two presidential-level institutions, the Defence Council and the more recent Domestic Security Council, into a single body —an idea that had been around for several months already but to which the Commission wholeheartedly subscribed to—. It was decided by the Commission that continuity should prevail, with minor adjustments in doctrine and force posture. President Sarkozy made a major speech about nuclear deterrence on 21 March After the working groups completed their initial reports, two parallel processes began.
One was the review by the Commission of these reports. In the early spring, the confrontation of capabilities and budgets began in earnest. At the end of the day, however, there was a strong majority view that the defence budget had to be exempted from the overall cuts in the national budget —especially as the overall size of defence personnel was to be reduced—. It begins with a new analysis of the current and foreseeable strategic context.
It recognises that this context has seen positive changes since , such as a growing proportion of democracies in the world and a downward trend in the number of major armed conflicts. However, it foresees a more complex environment, where risks and threats are more diverse and where the distinctions between external and internal security, as well as between intentional and non-intentional catastrophes, might become increasingly blurred for instance, coping with a major health crisis might often require the same kind of means regardless of whether it results from a global pandemic or from a bio-terrorist attack.
It also acknowledges that major armed conflicts in the Middle East or in Asia might occur during the time period which the White Paper takes as its horizon. It recognises that jihadism and the effects of proliferation will continue to affect the security of Europe. For , the White Paper foresees a world still largely dominated by the US but where Asian powers will have grown in importance and where regional conflicts might occur without much warning and might be difficult to control. A new National Intelligence Council Conseil National du Renseignement , chaired by the President himself, is meant to ensure better co-ordination between the various services.
The budget for space-based intelligence capabilities is to be doubled. These are to be deeply restructured. In overseas departments and territories, a number of military forces are to be replaced by Gendarmerie and police capabilities with the notable exception of French Guiana, due to its strategic importance as the main European space launch platform. Only two permanent bases will remain in Africa, one on each seaboard, while another is to be set up in the United Arab Emirates.
Modernisation plans were not affected by the White Paper. A total of 10, military personnel are to be earmarked for the protection of the national territory and approaches. It was decided to support the creation of an early warning system to allow the detection of missile launches and trajectories, to be fully set up by Capabilities in the field of cyber-warfare and bio-defence are also to be strengthened. It was judged that most French operations in the future would take place in a multi-national context.
Also, the risk of a major conflict in Europe was judged to be very low for the coming 15 years. For these reasons it was determined that the main projection goal was to be 30, Army personnel deployed in one theatre in six months and for up to a year, along with 70 combat aircraft able to conduct sorties a day. The armed forces are required to maintain, in parallel, 5, Army troops and 10 combat aircraft for a smaller but time-urgent contingency, for instance the evacuation of French nationals, the defence of an allied country or a retaliatory action after an act of aggression.
This is in addition to the 10, Army personnel required for a possible contingency on national territory. The Navy is to be able to deploy one carrier task force when available, and will maintain six nuclear-powered attack submarines as well as 18 front-line frigates and four amphibious command and projection vessels instead of two today equipped with 10 helicopters. However, as stated, this is to be judged in light of the fact that most operations now take place with the participation of European or NATO allies.
Strategic and theatre mobility are to be improved. Precise political criteria for the involvement of armed forces abroad were adopted, and Parliament will have to approve any operation lasting more than four months, except in case of extraordinary circumstances. The process will take about eight years, and will be achieved largely through the non-replacement of personnel who retire or finish their contracts.
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The number of Air Force online combat aircraft will be reduced from to Of these , around are earmarked for operations outside national territory. Other reorganisation decisions include regrouping all combat aircraft Air Force and Navy in a single pool of aircraft to be managed by the Air Force. These decisions have not always been applauded by the armed forces, but there is little doubt that they will embrace change as long as it means better-equipped forces. The real domestic challenges will come from the regions and cities affected by base closures.
The Commission stated ambitious goals for the EU, including an overall 60,strong intervention capability. Full membership of NATO foresees the French return to all military institutions with the exception of the Nuclear Planning Group, that France has already decided it would not join, but it would not result in any savings, and might actually cost money, since a higher number of military officers would have to be posted to various NATO institutions.
The White Paper is then meant to be updated every four or five years, coinciding with a new presidential mandate. Era muy de esperar que cualquier nuevo Presidente que saliera escogido en iniciara una reforma en materia de defensa. Cuando los grupos de trabajo hubieron finalizado sus primeros informes, comenzaron dos procesos paralelos. A principios de primavera, se hizo patente la seria disparidad de capacidades y presupuestos.
El presupuesto dedicado a la inteligencia espacial va a quedar duplicado. Se va a destinar a un total de Las fuerzas armadas deben contar, en paralelo, con 5. De los El presupuesto de defensa para es de For Spain the case for a national security strategy is growing because it shares the same complex and uncertain strategic challenges. Summary: At the beginning of the 21st century, governments across the globe have struggled to keep up with the growth and complexity of the challenges facing them. The Spanish government is no exception and finds itself exposed to the changes across a global system that often reverberates unpredictably throughout Spanish society.
To ensure the government takes a holistic approach to national security a strategy should be developed. Yet it is an intriguing paradox of the post Cold War world that national security has become, if anything, more frantic while the world around has become relatively more peaceful and benign than in previous decades G.
This sense of vulnerability is further perpetuated by an information revolution that has powerfully influenced expectations around the globe.
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Twenty-four hour news, seven days a week, has shortened time horizons, and governments have found it increasingly more difficult to request time to deliberate when television and online media report the latest unfolding tragedy minute by minute. It is an environment in which European governments find themselves ever more interconnected, where changes anywhere in the system reverberate unpredictably —and often chaotically throughout society—. Cause and effect are no longer close in time and space C. Edwards and S. Parker S. Towards a Networked Approach to Security The strategist John Bryson suggests that this increasing interconnectedness is perhaps most apparent in the blurring of three traditionally important distinctions between domestic and international spheres, between policy areas and between the public and private spaces.
This blurring can be seen most obviously when you consider the mass of trends and events affecting the EU from terrorism, immigration, pandemics, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction WMD , the impact of fragile states on the international community and the growth of serious and organised crime.
The challenge faced by Spain, France and the UK is that these diverse trends are marked by complex interactions that link, rather than divide, streams of events in the present and the future. Governments may by default remain linear, but life can no longer be understood or dealt with in such terms L. Threats and hazards —two different terms to distinguish between natural disasters, like the Hurricane Katrina, and human-inspired risks, such as terrorism— cannot be adequately dealt with solely by a single government department or even by a national government.
As threats become increasingly interlinked, such as terrorism and organised crime for example, joining forces across governments and with the EU has become an everyday necessity. This will lead to greater interdependence among departments and agencies, demanding a more holistic approach to security policy.
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The ramifications will become increasingly apparent as the responsibilities of departments blur, along with traditional lines of accountability, creating further opportunities for collaboration between public servants and enhancing the prospects for innovation across government. For Spain, the case for a national security strategy is growing. In the absence of a clear framework it is difficult to prioritise security policy at the national level given the lead times needed for the procurement of equipment, to allow initiatives to mature and be evaluated and for an overarching strategy to be accepted by the Spanish public.
Thus, we need to expand the operational definition of national security from its core interest in physical protection towards a comprehensive definition that embraces the sources and realities of power in the 21st century. Defining the concept of national security is an urgent requirement, as threats and hazards mutate over time, becoming more interconnected and thus more difficult to respond to by a single government department or agency.
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As recent events have shown, Spain faces a broad spectrum of threats and hazards to its national security. Organised crime is increasingly becoming part of a globalised network. Key areas of activity include big cities as well as the Mediterranean seashore. This includes state-sponsored terrorism, domestic extremism, religious extremism and violent secessionist movements.
The threat does not come only from countries of concern, but also from non-state actors eg terrorists and criminal networks. The growing number of failed or failing states is one of the most disturbing of recent security developments. These states contribute to instability and can be a haven for terrorists and organised crime groups that exploit weak or corrupt governing structures to pursue their nefarious activities.
Spain has been subject to natural hazards such as earthquakes and hurricanes, as well forest fires and severe heat waves.
Examples such as the SARS epidemic or Avian Flu H5N1 demonstrate how accelerated international travel patterns have amplified the risk of pandemics and related health threats to the security of Spanish people. Adapting to the New Security Environment The development of a national security strategy for Spain would provide the government with an anticipatory view of risks. Long-range strategic thinking is imperative if the government is to prepare for future uncertainties and is a crucial process in allowing individuals in government to question organisational assumptions about the direction of policy.
If getting the questions right is the first task, being clear about what is an assumption and what is a critical variable is the second. There are a number of methods that allow organisations to attempt to understand the future, including forecasting and scenario planning. Once completed, scenarios serve two main purposes. The first is protective: anticipating and understanding risk. The second is entrepreneurial: discovering strategic options of which you were previously unaware P.
Man traps are dangerous only in relation to the limitations of what men can see and value and do Vickers, Freedom in a Rocking Boat, Penguin, Individuals and organisations are also very bad at learning the right lessons from random or unpredictable events. There is a clear place for learning operational lessons from events such as the 11 M bombings on the Madrid train network in order to prepare ourselves for a similar event next time. However, this should not be at the cost of ignoring other potential scenarios; the strategic aim should be to better prepare for unpredictable events in general.
Finally, some of the biggest threats to organisational survival are often not shock events but slowly building pressures and trends. National security relies on a multitude of departments, agencies and, increasingly, private sector and voluntary organisations in a growing network of collaboration and coordination. Bryson suggests that this requires organisations to adopt four approaches: 1 Organisations must think, act and learn strategically as never before. The Case for a National Security Strategy Until the early s, strategic planning in governments was primarily concerned with military strategy and the practice of statecraft on a grand scale, according to Bryson.
And while there is not the space to discuss the transformation of the term strategy across the military—civil divide we should bear in mind the suggestion of Michael Howard, the British military historian, that the term strategy needs continual definition. In the case of national security the role of strategy is important in a number of respects. First, it is crucial to articulate a vision of the environment in which Spain operates, both for individuals and organisations working in government and the public at large.
Often policies and missions pursued by government departments are in conflict with each other, resulting in poor coordination, failure to meet policy goals and objectives, and a sense of confusion in government. Secondly, a national security strategy should offer scope to arrive at a political assessment of the risks on which to prioritise and allocate funding and direct resources.
Developing a government-wide framework therefore would promote greater synergy between the relevant departments and agencies, thus enabling a more strategic approach to national security, while ensuring the Spanish government was able to anticipate future threats and challenges. Publishing an agreed document would also follow a global trend of national governments publishing their national security strategies.
The British, French and Dutch governments have, for example, all published national security strategies in the past three years. Current national security policy is also fragmented and compartmentalised, which stands in the way of adequate proactive policy development. Threats or hazards may come from unexpected sources —this is not to say the latter may be prevented entirely but the capacity to distinguish and recognise such signs could be increased—.
Structures are fairly well organised for an adequate approach to large and small-scale incidents in the response phase. Members vary according to the issue being dealt with and a diverse set of issues is discussed. It is seen as a model of how effective government coordination in a crisis can be, especially in the definition of strategic goals, options and risk appraisal, and the allocation of work to secure those goals. Conclusion: There can be no greater role for government than the protection and safety of its citizens. But managing national security without a strategy is like running an orchestra without a musical score: a recipe for an ill-coordinated and out-of-tune response.
A national security strategy is not a panacea for joined-up government, and there are limitations to strategy: a strategy by no means renders national security invulnerable to threats. Nor does a strategy eradicate all risks. It would, however, enable the government to communicate clearly concerning its ability and inability to safeguard national security. The results of this process cannot remain solely in a white paper, but must provide for a revolution in how the government protects the Spain.
Present and future challenges demand it. Resumen: A principios del siglo XXI, los Gobiernos de todo el mundo han luchado por mantenerse a la altura del crecimiento y la complejidad de los retos a los que se enfrentan. Edwards y S. Una vez definidos, los escenarios sirven para dos fines principales. Taleb, El cisne negro: el impacto de lo altamente improbable, Random House, En lo que concierne a la seguridad nacional, el papel de la estrategia es importante en diferentes aspectos.
Pero gestionar la seguridad nacional sin una estrategia equivale a dirigir una orquesta sin partitura: la clave para obtener una respuesta descoordinada y desafinada. The usual disclaimer applies. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the future of Europe to be generated by this European Council initiative.
In particular, this working paper aims to establish a hypothesis about where the EU will be in In ascending order from the least to the most integrationist, the following scenarios are suggested: 1 termination; 2 variable geometries; 3 status quo; 4 incremental integration with variable geometries; 5 incremental integration without variable geometries; and 6 political union. Devising possible scenarios does not, however, tell us anything about the likelihood of their actually happening. In my opinion, these determinants are the following: 1 enlargement to new Member States; 2 the degree of diversity such enlargement might bring about; 3 the increase in the heterogeneity of interests that enlargement might produce; and 4 the delegation of core sovereignty competences to the EU.
All these factors can either hinder or foster EU integration, depending on how they work in the future and how they interact with each other. This working paper shows that it is not unrealistic to see the EU being enlarged in the next 10 years, at least to Croatia, Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro and at the most to all these countries plus Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia. The presence of nationalist political parties in most of them, coupled with ethno-social cleavages, would probably increase the degree of heterogeneity of interests within the EU.
However, as regards competences, it is not foreseeable for the Member States to cede new core competences in particular, in the field of defence and foreign policy to the EU within the next 10 years.
In other words, the main hypothesis put forward is that the EU would move in the next 10 years towards a situation in which it would progressively dilute into a free market zone, coupled with a number of policies that will be managed through variable geometry mechanisms.
The de-integration movement predicted in this paper is not, however, inexorable. First, because, as EU history shows us, it could be the precursor of a more intense integration after And secondly, and more importantly, because political leadership, if strong and sufficiently well oriented, could counterbalance such a trend. Introduction What will the EU look like, from a political standpoint, in 10 years time? Will it just be an integrated space from an economic point of view with very little or no political integration?
Or will it have disappeared? These are the sort of questions this paper attempts to deal with. Asking questions about the future shape of the EU is a legitimate enterprise. One could argue that it has always been. Exercises of the kind are now familiar to the EU.
Rightly or wrongly, there is the perception that everything is open now for Europe, that anything could happen in the years to come. In the first part I discuss the possible EU scenarios for In the second part I discuss not the possible, but the probable scenarios. The first analysis implies conceiving all possible scenarios one might think of, from the least integrationist to the most integrationist, irrespective of the likelihood of them actually happening. The second exercise mainly implies commenting on the variables that affect the likelihood of the scenarios happening.
Therefore, I shall set forth a predictive model relative to the degree of integration that the EU can achieve in around 10 years time, and I shall discuss it in theoretical terms. This will help me put forward a hypothetical scenario for Departing from this definition, I devise six possible scenarios in which the EU can find itself in 10 years. To use a less technical expression, it would cease to exist, it would disappear. And we could go on. It would be more than controversial for the first Community institution to speak of the demise of the hand that feeds it.
If, as Langer proclaims, there is no shortage of indications pointing in the direction that the end of the EU could occur one day, why not contemplate it? EU termination raises a number of practical issues. Though they are basically of a legal nature, it is nevertheless interesting to at least say a word about them. In the florid world of international law, some treaties do contemplate their own termination, whereas others do not.
Therefore, it is not uncommon to find treaties that do not include provisions on termination. This does not mean that these treaties are immortal. As a matter of fact, parties to these treaties sometimes terminate them. Because this happens to be the case more times than one can think of, the Vienna Convention on the Law of the Treaties of has wisely established provisions on Treaty terminations for such cases. In my view, these provisions would be of application to the EU context. In principle, the Vienna Convention establishes that there is no need for a specific reason to terminate a Treaty.
In other words, if all the Member States agreed that the EU should terminate, it would cease to exist. However, this coincidence of wills may not take place. It is easy to imagine a situation in which most of the Member States, but not all, want to put an end to the EU.
Therefore, there would be no common agreement on the issue. This rebus sic stantibus clause could work in my example as follows: the EC Treaty was signed in , well before the collapse of the Berlin Wall in After the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the historical circumstances that gave rise to the creation of the EC have completely changed.
Therefore, under the new circumstances basically, the fall of the Soviet Union and the return to democracy of central and eastern Europe the Treaty would have to terminate, since it was forged in a completely different historical context. Of course, Member States belonging to the minority would oppose such an argument. For these cases, the Vienna Convention foresees a number of procedures for an independent third party to find a solution.
Therefore, the EU would have to fulfil all the obligations that it had entered into before termination of the Treaty. Further, beyond the legal consequences, there would be other kind of consequences: to cite but the most obvious ones, Member States would suffer economic costs derived from the extinction of the single market. This aspect of the consequences legal and other of termination is not a minor one: it moves many authors to argue that termination would be so costly that Member States would never even consider the option.
A different thing is how likely termination would be but, as pointed out in the introduction to this paper, the issue of probabilities shall be dealt with later on. Scenario 2: Variable Geometries Variable geometries would be the second least integrationist scenario. To start with, it is important to correctly depict what is to be understood by this scenario. Note, first of all, that I use the expression in the plural. Secondly, we find cases of reinforced co-operations. Third, we find cases of opting-out.
What unites all these different situations, and some others one could probably think of, is that not all Member States go together as regards the adoption of a particular measure or policy. In the second, the key would be that the Member State in question would not have adopted a specific policy, whereas in the third one, it would have expressly declared its wish to drop out of a particular policy.
The fourth one international treaties involves a more complex kind of cases. One could conceive at least two different situations here. And the second situation would be one in which all Member States make an international agreement outside the Community framework, for some reason for example because the Community decision-making rule does not fit them: imagine that decision rule is majority voting and that they want to adopt the measure by unanimous agreement. In fact, one could even say that variable geometries are sprawling in the Community context.
They are developing into something more frequent than some would like them to Toth, Therefore, a correct way to depict this scenario would be one in which the current exception became the rule, and the rule the exception. Accordingly, this scenario could adopt more and less radical forms. The policy I speak about is the single market policy. The reason for this choice is not arbitrary: I do not see how this policy could be managed through variable geometries. It is not by chance that the EU and the EC Treaties have specifically excluded the possibility of having a reinforced cooperation in this field.
Beyond that, every other policy could in fact be dealt with by variable geometries. This leads us to the following conclusion: in its most radical expression, this scenario would be one in which the EU would have diluted into a free market zone, with no other supranational features, plus a number of policies which the Member States would adhere to as a function of their respective needs and interests. On the one hand, it is true, as I have argued before, that the multiplication of the instances of variable geometry means, in principle, a lesser degree of integration.
However, on the other hand, it is also true that inside a specific variable geometry setting, one may find instances in which Community deepening is enhanced. And, as we know, deepening is one of the forms integration can adopt. Suppose, for example, that Member States cannot agree on a measure related to energy policy establishing a Community independent agency, with both regulatory and control powers. Then a majority of them agree to create a reinforced cooperation between them with exactly the same content as the original Community measure.
In more general terms: what is the justification for placing variable geometries as the second least integrationist scenario? The answer to this question is of course contingent upon the definition we adopt of integration.